Dubai recorded AED 917bn of transactions in 2025. Value and volume then diverged as price indices changed direction. Here is what the evidence supports.
The record is real
Dubai registered AED 917 billion of transactions in 2025 and more than 270,000 transactions, its strongest annual reading. The first quarter of 2026 reached AED 252 billion. Demand, population growth and international participation remain material. A record market, however, must be read through both value and volume.
Value and volume have separated
In the first quarter of 2026, registered value rose 31 per cent while transaction volume increased 6 per cent. The divergence can reflect a move toward higher-priced stock, a concentration at the top or changing product mix. It cannot be interpreted as uniform price growth. Three independently constructed indices changed direction between October 2025 and June 2026.
The slowdown is measurable. Its meaning is not yet settled.
The missing off-plan test
The most useful early-warning series would separate the price and number of off-plan transactions from completed homes each month. Dubai’s registry records that distinction, but published aggregates do not provide a consistent series. Without it, claims about the 2026 delivery wave often rest on incompatible estimates rather than a reproducible test.
What would settle the debate
Two consecutive quarters of rising value and volume would support the normalisation case. A widening gap between off-plan and completed-home prices, or a decline in super-prime transactions, would point in the other direction. The slowdown has started. Its duration and severity remain open questions rather than settled conclusions.
Primary sources
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